Penn Dems Favor Specter Primary Challenge

It looks like the dems of Pennsylvania don't think Arlen Specter should get a free pass. A poll out by Pennsylvania-based Susquehanna Polling and Research says that the majority of Pennsylvania's (63%) feel that Specter needs to be challenged:

"In the 2010 race for U.S. Senate, by a 63/28 margin most Democrats believe Specter should face a challenge from one or more other Democrats in the 2010 Democratic primary in order to secure the nomination (9% are undecided). This suggests most Democrats want Specter to earn his rightful place as the Democratic nominee despite comments by Democratic Party officials and leaders that Specter should be given a free ride in the primary."

Damn straight. In a democracy, no is annointed!

Penn Gov Ed Rendell Endorses Specter

Popular Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell has endorsed Arlen Specter for senate and has warned Sestak, Arlen's dem primary challenger, that he would lose handily and eventually "fade into political obscurity."

This comes as no surprise because Rendell and Specter go way back. We have also discussed here why a primary challenge to Specter by Sestak is good for dems in general. Will Rendell's endorsement change Sestak's mind? Probably not. This was coming for a while now and Sestak is known for being stubborn. Sestak needs to stay in the race to keep Arlen honest. 

Primary Fight for Arlen Specter

Every since Senator Arlen Specter changed his party affiliation to dem the dem party elite have been trying to remove primary opponents for Arlen's re-election next year. I don't think Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) got the memo.

"While it is tempting to think that the Democratic leadership and the White House might put considerable pressure on Sestak to stay out of the primary and leave Specter alone, don't count on it. Apart from the fact that the famously stubborn Sestak adversely reacts to pressure by others, the threat of a primary makes Specter a better and more reliable Democrat on the Senate floor, something that is important given the contentious issues ahead over the next year. This also might be a sign that Democrats just aren't worried about the prospect of facing conservative former Rep. Pat Toomey in a general election."

Yes, the primary might make Arlen a more reliable vote. I also realize Arlen Specter's change gives dems the 60th vote in the senate but I don't think he should get a free pass during his DEM primary. The truth is, he is only has dem tendencies. He was a moderate repub but definitely carried Bush's water the past 8 years. Should he suddenly get a race without a primary? No. Pennsylvania is trending dem anyway and Arlen was going to lose his repub primary and then a good dem would have won the senate seat without Arlen. We don't need the leftovers of the repub party. We need good dems. Arlen better start showing his good dem credentials or he just might lose his senate seat. 

Senator Arlen Specter Switches Parties

WOW!!! Seeing his looming loss in the next election as a repub, moderate Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania has made a smart move to become a democrat. This must pain him dearly but at the end of the day, it's about survival.

"I have decided to run for re-election in 2010 in the Democratic primary. I am ready, willing and anxious to take on all comers and have my candidacy for re-election determined in a general election."

With Franken being seated in June after Coleman's futile appeal, the dems will have 60 seats. This is huge. Health Care, Employee Free Choice Act, Supreme Court Appointees, everything is at the dems fingertips. 

Don't fuck it up dems. 

Update:

From Politicalwire:

"The Hill reports Senate Republican leaders "received no heads up" from Specter about his decision.

Meanwhile, Ben Smith reports Vice President Joe Biden "deeply involved" in the talks with Specter to make the switch.

NBC News says Democrats promised Specter would face no Democratic challenger but that he was promised no committee chairmanship in return for switching parties."

Update II:

Why did he change parties? See here about a previous post. 

Specter To Vote No on EFCA

Senator Arlen Specter of Pa has decided to vote against cloture of the Employee Free Choice Act. This means it probably won't get to be voted on. Basically, killing the bill. (I am tired of journalists writing that it won't get "passed". This is wrong. What the repubs are doing now is filibustering anything they can't win. Which means no one gets to vote on it. 60 votes is needed to "end debate" and not "pass" a bill.)

What does this mean for Arlen? Well, it looks like he has chosen to run as a repub in 2010 and not independent. Why? I have no idea. He already has a strong primary challenger. He also had a gurantee from the labor unions to back his candidacy. (which are strong in Pa.)

At the end of the day. Arlen Specter's history of supporting unions just went out the window. I am afraid he might have secured an end to his career. 

Good Scenarios For Sen Arlen Specter to Become Dem

Kos has a good rundown on possible scenarios for Arlen Specter. His biggest problem is that he's likely to lose a GOP primary. However, he could do very well as a dem in the blue state of Penn. Markos says:

Specter votes for EFCA, and becomes a Democrat

Following his vote for EFCA, still as a Republican (giving Obama his desperately needed "bipartisanship"), the reaction from the Limbaugh crowd would be fierce. Heck, we know that they'd be screaming for his head. So Specter could look sad and forlorn, bemoan the lack of tolerance in the GOP, say that "I didn't leave the GOP, the GOP left me", and ride that wave of hate and invective straight to the other side of the aisle. Presto! 60 seats.

With the unions behind him and Rendel putting the machine to work in his favor, it's hard to see an opening for a real Democrat in a primary. Then again, like every other party switcher before him, Specter would quickly move left to establish his bona fides in his new party. We saw that with Sen. Jim Jeffords earlier this decade, and he was supposedly just an independent, and we certainly saw it with the likes of Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell and Dixiecrats like Sen. Richard Shelby who switched the other direction. Running for reelection as a Democrat, Specter would easily dispatch Toomey in the general election. But as a possible bonus, conservatives could drop some serious coin into this hopeless race in their effort to exact revenge.

Specter's Best Bet...Become a Dem

Arlen Specter, the senior senator from Pennsylvania, will probably not be reelected as a repub. The Hill is reporting that he will most likely get a primary opponent. For moderate repubs this is death.

If you haven't noticed, moderate repubs have been dropping like flies for the past 4 years. Two reasons for this. The electorate has moved solidly left, knocking off repub moderates from all of the U.S. The second is that with so many voters moving dem, there are only the crazies left in the repub base. In order to get reelected during the primary, a repub candidate must be able to do the crazy shuffle to appease the base.

This leaves only extremist repubs the opportunity to get elected at the primary stage. Then they go into a general election and get trounced because they are so extreme.

So where does that leave moderate Specter? Change to the dem party. He was once a dem so why not just change back? It will be the only way in which he can win relection.